Kempen Presentation

Transcripción

Kempen Presentation

Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap Strategy
Gestión de activos de “alta convicción” en Small-caps Europeas
► Mayo 2016
► KCM: Tommy Bryson
Resumen de Kempen Capital Management
Los activos gestionados están bien repartidos en diferentes nichos
Inversiones*
€12.900 millones
Soluciones*
€28.800 millones
634
3,707
693
983
3,802
1,666
16,132
8,960
2,210
2,972
Euro Investment Grade Credits
Fund of Hedge Funds
Fiduciary Management
High Dividend Equity
Listed Real Estate
Private Clients
Euro High Grade Government Bonds
Fundamental Indexing®
Fiduciary Management UK
Small-cap Equity
* Datos a 31 de Diciembre de 2015, en EUR mn
Kempen Capital Management
1
Un caso ejemplar
Proceso analítico
riguroso
Selección de acciones con alta
convicción
Aproximación ASG
única
Compromiso Innovador
Mejores Resultados
Sostenibles en el
Largo Plazo
Resultado superior al benchmark en un 3.9% anualizado desde el comienzo
2
Un equipo enfocado a la inversión de “convicción”
Tommy Bryson
CFA
Nordics
Mark
McCullough
Kathleen
Dewandeleer
UK & Ireland
Benelux,
Portugal, France
& Spain
Mike Gray CFA
Austria, Germany
& Italy
Martin
Stockner
UK & Switzerland
Karen McGrath
Head of
Sustainability
Strong Team
3
Performance
Gráfico del binomio Rentabilidad-Riesgo a 5 años
13%
Kempen Sustainable European
Small-cap Strategy
12%
11%
10%
9%
Annualised
Return
MSCI European
Small-cap Index
8%
7%
MSCI European
Large-cap Index
6%
5%
12,5%
Volatility
13,0%
13,5%
14,0%
14,5%
15,0%
Figures based on a representative account gross of fees. Data to the end of March 2016. Source: KCM, Datastream
4
Selección de activos con alta convicción
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Revisión y Contraste
Team & ESG validation
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
Generación de la Idea
High Quality - ROCE/FCF Yield
Special Situations - specific event
Definición del universo de Inversión
Average daily trading value > €0.25m, Market cap > €250m and <
€5.0bn
Añadiendo valor mediante el análisis propio – Financiero y ASG
5
Appendix: Kempen Sustainable European Small-cap Strategy
Amer Sports – Inversión realizada en octubre de 2015
6
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Definición del universo de inversión
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
► Liquidez
 Volumen medio diario >EUR250,000
► Capitalización de mercado
 >EUR250m y < EUR5bn
Inversores verdaderos en Small-cap
7
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
HQ
(Alta calidad)
or
SS
(Situación especial)
Solo adquirimos dos tipos de empresas
8
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Análisis Propio- Financiero
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
► 5 fuerzas de Porter
► Modelo Financiero
Research Summary
AMER SPORTS
Amer Sports (AMEAS FH): Porter’s 5 Forces Model
Amer Sports is a sporting goods company with brands including Arc’teryx, Salomon, Atomic,
Wilson, Mavic, Suunto and Precor. It offers both soft (footwear and apparel) and hard
(equipment) goods over a range of sports including tennis, badminton, golf, American football,
baseball, basketball, alpine skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing, fitness training, cycling,
running, hiking and diving. Amer Sports’ USP is its brands and the technical excellence reputation
it has built around them.
Management:
Chairman Anssi Vanjoki (age 59, since 2006). 7 additional independent directors.
CEO Heikki Takala (age 49, since 2010). Ex-P&G so not an industry guy. Has turned strategy
around on its head to focus on soft goods rather than equipment (hard goods). I get the
impression that he is pretty focused and market savvy.
CFO Jussi Siitonen (age 46, since 2011). Solid. Previously at Stora Enso.
Remuneration: Annual targets – EBIT, cash flow and growth. Also share based incentives:
annual on EBIT margin and growth then long term rolling based on 3 year total return.
Amer Sports geographic segment revenue split, 2014
Amer Sports business segment revenue/EBIT split, 2014
100.0%
120.0%
80.0%
16.6%
14.4%
100.0%
21.6%
24.1%
Eliminations
60.0%
Fitness
40.0%
61.5%
74.9%
Ball Sports
Winter & Outdoor
20.0%
Revenue
(13.0%)
EBIT
39.2%
APAC
Americas
EMEA
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
13.0%
80.0%
60.0%
47.7%
0.0%
(20.0%)
Revenue
Suppliers (bargaining power with the company)
M
With 25% self-manufactured (skiing and cycling equipment), 15% ‘partially outsourced vendors'
and 60% outsourced (racquets, golf, team sports, most of apparel and footwear), Amer Sports is
not particularly dependent on any one supplier. Manufacturing is located in Austria, Bulgaria,
France, Finland, Canada and US.
Customers (bargaining power with the company)
M
End customers have limited bargaining power other than the ability to vote with their feet. Its
focus on the premium segment does give it more pricing power than mid/mass focused peers.
Despite increasingly taking control, Amer Sports is still reliant on third party distribution which has
reasonable power.
Substitutes (potential product or service threat to the company)
Ranking on ROCE:
Income Statement (EURm)
Sales
Adjusted EBITDA
Depreciation
Adjusted EBITA
Amortisation
Goodwill Impairment
Adjusted EBIT
Net interest
Tax
Associates
Minorities
XOI
Net profit normalised
EPS (reported)
EPS (adjusted)
DPS
Shares o/s (fully diluted)
Margin and Growth Analysis
Sales growth
EBIT growth
EPS growth
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
Net margin
Snapshot
120.0%
BB Ticker:
Country:
Price:
Shares in issues (m):
Market Capitalisation (EURm):
Ave daily volume (EURm):
Free Float %:
H
There are a plethora of products in each of the segments in which it operates (perhaps with the
exception of NFL pigskins and baseball bats) which pose a threat. Brands are hard to replicate
but they can be bought and can move into adjacencies (think Nike in golf, Apple smart watches).
Balance Sheet
Intangible assets
P,P&E
Cash
Inventories
Receivables
Total Assets
Payables
Interest bearing debt
Provisions
Equity
Minorities
Capital Employed
Cashflow
Operating Cash Flow
Net Capex
Intangible capex
Free Cash Flow
Acquisitions/Disposals
Debt change
Buybacks
Dividend
Other
Net Cash Flow (pre-fx)
Balance Sheet and Cashflow ratios
Net debt
Net gearing %
Net debt/EBITDA
Interest income
Interest expense
Net interest/net debt
Interest Cover
Tax rate
Net Working Capital
Inventories/Sales
Receivables/Sales
Payables/Sales
WC/Sales
Cash conversion - (CFO/EBIT)
Capex/Depreciation
Depreciation/Sales
Depreciation life
Capex/Sales
Intangibles/Sales
Total Capex+M&A/Sales
Dividend payout
AMEAS FH
FINLAND
EUR 26.46
118.5
3,140
7.555
91.0%
Quartile:
2
Consensus:
10 Buys
2016E
Sales
EBIT
EPS
EBIT Margin
2,716
244
1.33
9.0%
2 Holds
2017E
2,887
274
1.51
9.5%
Updated:
0 Sells
2018E
3,054
299
1.66
9.8%
2016E
Guidance
0.0%
(Both rankings unchanged since first pitched in July 2015)
PT & TSR:
Analyst:
SRI Status:
MSCI ESG Rating:
GICS Sector:
ICB Sector:
25/04/2016
Select recommendation
31.8
25.2%
TBRY
Passed
AA
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Goods
Ranking on FCF Yield Quartile:
3
2010
1,740
155
(36)
119
(11)
108
(21)
(7)
(0)
(11)
80
0.57
0.66
0.30
121.2
2011
1,881
171
(24)
147
(12)
136
(21)
(24)
(0)
91
0.76
0.76
0.33
120.1
2012
2,064
179
(28)
151
(12)
139
(32)
(25)
(25)
82
0.49
0.70
0.35
118.1
2013
2,137
197
(33)
165
(10)
155
(29)
(36)
90
0.76
0.76
0.40
118.1
2014
2,229
217
(36)
181
(9)
(4)
168
(37)
(22)
(54)
113
0.47
0.96
0.45
118.3
2015
2,534
263
(42)
221
(9)
212
(36)
(46)
(8)
130
1.03
1.10
0.55
117.9
2016E
2,720
302
(45)
257
(9)
248
(31)
(61)
(6)
156
1.27
1.32
0.60
117.9
2017E
2,888
337
(48)
289
(9)
280
(31)
(70)
179
1.52
1.52
0.69
117.9
2018E
3,069
371
(51)
321
(9)
311
(31)
(79)
202
1.71
1.71
0.77
117.9
2019E
3,265
395
(54)
341
(9)
332
(30)
(84)
217
1.84
1.84
0.83
117.9
2020E
3,477
420
(57)
363
(9)
354
(30)
(91)
233
1.98
1.98
0.89
117.9
2010
13.5%
121.1%
77.4%
8.9%
6.2%
4.6%
2011
8.1%
25.6%
14.6%
9.1%
7.2%
4.8%
2012
9.7%
2.4%
(7.8%)
8.7%
6.7%
4.0%
2013
3.5%
11.7%
9.7%
9.2%
7.3%
4.2%
2014
4.3%
8.7%
25.2%
9.7%
7.6%
5.1%
2015
13.7%
26.0%
14.9%
10.4%
8.4%
5.1%
2016E
7.3%
16.9%
20.5%
11.1%
9.1%
5.7%
2017E
6.2%
13.0%
15.0%
11.7%
9.7%
6.2%
2018E
6.3%
11.1%
12.6%
12.1%
10.1%
6.6%
2019E
6.4%
6.5%
7.3%
12.1%
10.2%
6.6%
2020E
6.5%
6.7%
7.4%
12.1%
10.2%
6.7%
2010
501
134
85
302
463
1,654
182
380
30
788
3
1,082
2011
510
146
79
360
518
1,824
200
470
68
806
3
1,191
2012
501
153
143
337
517
1,870
193
577
92
732
1,263
2013
486
155
236
355
514
2,030
219
702
63
761
1,274
2014
510
167
221
413
543
2,174
238
659
96
843
1,333
2015
628
196
331
482
564
2,556
276
792
97
950
1,442
2016E
622
206
391
490
605
2,667
296
792
97
1,035
1,520
2017E
616
216
447
520
642
2,795
314
792
97
1,144
1,559
2018E
609
226
511
552
683
2,936
334
792
97
1,265
1,614
2019E
603
238
574
588
727
3,083
355
792
97
1,391
1,675
2020E
598
250
641
626
774
3,242
378
792
97
1,527
1,740
2010
80
(31)
(9)
40
(56)
(20)
(6)
(41)
2011
31
(44)
(7)
(21)
(1)
85
(37)
(36)
3
(7)
2012
113
(44)
(5)
63
(3)
37
(39)
6
65
2013
87
(43)
(2)
42
128
(5)
(41)
7
131
2014
105
(49)
(3)
53
(42)
(13)
(47)
19
(30)
2015
212
(48)
(29)
134
(75)
99
(53)
(15)
90
2016E
182
(54)
(3)
125
(65)
60
2017E
187
(58)
(3)
126
(70)
56
2018E
209
(61)
(3)
144
(81)
64
2019E
223
(65)
(3)
154
(91)
63
2020E
237
(70)
(3)
164
(98)
67
2010
295
37.4%
1.9x
0.6%
4.7%
(7.4%)
7.3x
7.6%
583
17.4%
26.6%
10.4%
33.5%
74.2%
0.9x
2.1%
3.6
1.8%
0.5%
2.3%
45.5%
2011
392
48.6%
2.3x
0.7%
4.8%
(6.0%)
8.4x
21.0%
678
19.1%
27.6%
10.6%
36.0%
22.6%
1.8x
1.3%
5.5
2.3%
0.4%
2.8%
43.7%
2012
434
59.3%
2.4x
0.7%
4.9%
(7.7%)
5.6x
22.9%
661
16.3%
25.0%
9.3%
32.0%
81.2%
1.6x
1.4%
5.2
2.1%
0.2%
2.5%
50.2%
2013
465
61.1%
2.4x
0.2%
4.2%
(6.4%)
6.9x
28.5%
650
16.6%
24.1%
10.3%
30.4%
56.4%
1.3x
1.5%
4.7
2.0%
0.1%
2.1%
52.3%
2014
438
52.0%
2.0x
0.2%
4.3%
(8.2%)
5.8x
16.5%
719
18.5%
24.4%
10.7%
32.2%
62.3%
1.4x
1.6%
4.3
2.2%
0.1%
2.3%
47.0%
2015
460
48.5%
1.7x
0.4%
4.1%
(8.0%)
7.3x
26.4%
770
19.0%
22.2%
10.9%
30.4%
99.7%
1.2x
1.7%
4.0
1.9%
1.1%
6.0%
50.0%
2016E
401
38.7%
1.3x
0.4%
4.1%
(7.2%)
9.7x
28.0%
799
18.0%
22.2%
10.9%
29.4%
73.3%
1.2x
1.7%
4.4
2.0%
0.1%
2.1%
45.0%
2017E
344
30.1%
1.0x
0.4%
4.1%
(8.3%)
10.9x
28.0%
848
18.0%
22.2%
10.9%
29.4%
66.8%
1.2x
1.7%
4.3
2.0%
0.1%
2.1%
45.0%
2018E
281
22.2%
0.8x
0.4%
4.1%
(9.8%)
12.1x
28.0%
901
18.0%
22.2%
10.9%
29.4%
67.1%
1.2x
1.7%
4.3
2.0%
0.1%
2.1%
45.0%
2019E
218
15.7%
0.6x
0.4%
4.1%
(12.2%)
13.0x
28.0%
959
18.0%
22.2%
10.9%
29.4%
67.1%
1.2x
1.7%
4.2
2.0%
0.1%
2.1%
45.0%
2020E
151
9.9%
0.4x
0.4%
4.1%
(16.3%)
14.0x
28.0%
1,021
18.0%
22.2%
10.9%
29.4%
67.1%
1.2x
1.7%
4.1
2.0%
0.1%
2.1%
45.0%
Añadiendo valor mediante el análisis propio – Financiero y ASG
9
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Revisión y Contraste – Equipo
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
Price Target Calculation:
Discounted ROCE FV
33.3%
DCF
33.3%
Historic Multiples FV
0.0%
Peer Multiples FV
33.3%
Price Target (PT):
31.8
2% growth given underlying drivers
10% terminal EBIT margin
Restructuring phase so not used
weighted 40% soft, 60% hard
25.1%
El equipo revisa y cuestiona la propuesta y realiza un
valoración ASG independiente
10
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Análisis Propio – proceso ASG
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
Análisis ASG
basado en el
cuestionario
Idea de
Inversión
Resultados
analizados por
ACTIAM
Desempeño
medioambiental
Implicación con
empresas
Desempeño
social
Voto delegado
Ética y Buen
Gobierno
Implicación con
empresas
Análisis validado por una entidad independiente
11
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Análisis Propio – Cuestionario ASG
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
Desempeño Medioambiental
• Políticas medioambientales
• Sistema de Gestión
Medioambiental
• Auditar / certificación ISO
Desempeño Social
• Política y ámbito en recursos
humanos
• Estrategia social en países en
riesgo
Ética y Buen Gobierno del
Negocio
• Código ético de conducta
• Integridad y transparencia
• Política de denuncio
• Cuantía de emisiones de CO2
• Proyección del desempeño
social de los proveedores
• Independencia y diversidad del
consejo
• Consumo de agua
• Acuerdos por servicios públicos
• Innovación verde
• Tabla de Desempeño Social
• Integridad en proceso y
estrategias
• Tabla de Desempeño
Medioambiental
• Tabla de Desempeño del
Gobierno Corporativo
Desde 2002 implicándose con compañías sobre criterios ASG
12
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Análisis Propio – implicación ASG
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
KCM Company Engagements 2011-15
154
151
96
2011
2012
98
88
2013
2014
2015
La implicación está en el núcleo de lo que hacemos
13
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Revisión y Contraste – ASG
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
APROBADO
PROVISIONAL
RECHAZADO
INVERTIR
INVERTIR
NO INVERTIR
Si aprueba al menos
2 de los 3 criterios
ASG
Si aprueba al menos
1 de los 3 criterios
ASG
No aprueban ninguno
de los 3 criterios
ASG*
Disponible para
invertir durante 3 años
Disponible para
invertir durante 2 años
No disponible para
invertir durante 1 año
No invertiremos en:
• Armamento
• Pruebas con animales
• Juego
• Tabaco
• Alcohol
• Energía nuclear
• Pornografía
• Ingeniería genética
• Producción industrial de
animales de granja
• Corrupción
• Abusos a los humanos y
derechos laborales
Re-evaluación Continua
•
Compañías bajo sospecha de implicación por actividades problemáticas, que se niegan a cooperar o a demostrar franqueza serán excluidos del universo de inversión
14
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Cartera de Convicción
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
30-50 Títulos (Actualmente 33)
6
9
24
Alta Calidad
Situación Especial
27
Aprobado
Provisional
Todas las posiciones son significativas
15
Cartera de
“Convicción”
Cartera de Convicción - características
Análisis Propio
Financial & ESG
€5.0bn
Características de la estrategia
Características
Estrategia
Benchmark*
2-year earnings growth (FY0-FY2)**
14.5%
9.7%
Dividend yield (FY0)
2.2%
2.3%
Price/Earnings ratio (FY2)
17.8x
16.0x
P/ Book (FY0)
3.4x
2.0x
EV/ Sales (FY2)
1.4x
1.4x
EV/ EBITDA (FY2)
10.1x
9.1x
Net Debt/ EBITDA (FY0)
0.5x
1.2x
Free Cash Flow Yield (FY0)
4.5%
3.5%
ROCE (FY0)
21.9%
9.9%
Weighted average market cap. (€ mn)
2,190
2,408
33
923
Number of Holdings
5 year average turnover***
41%
High Quality: 24 holdings (74%) Special Situations: 9 holdings (24%)
* Benchmark: MSCI Euro Small-cap TR Index (half UK Adj)
** Annualised
*** Last 5 calendar years (2011-2015), double counted
Source: KCM UK, FactSet, data as at end March 2016
16
Un caso ejemplar
Proceso analítico
riguroso
Selección de acciones con alta
convicción
Aproximación ASG
única
Compromiso Innovador
Mejores Resultados
Sostenibles en el
Largo Plazo
Resultado superior al benchmark en un 3.9% anualizado desde el comienzo
17
Disclaimer
Kempen Capital Management N.V. (KCM) is licensed as a manager of various investment funds and to provide investment services and is subject to supervision by the
Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets.
KCM has entrusted, under its control and responsibility, Kempen Capital Management (UK) Ltd. with the execution of the investment policy. This investment firm is subject to
regulation of the Financial Conduct Authority and registered under no.166063.
This presentation is for information purposes only and provides insufficient information for an investment decision. No part of this presentation may be used without prior
permission from KCM.
18

Kempen Presentation

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